🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still